The 2014 World Cup tournament in Brazil is on, and it is not without its surprises as a couple of top rated teams like Spain and England have been eliminated, while “minnows” like Costa Rica are proving to be a team to really be reckoned with. For most of the countries remaining in the competition, patriotic juices are still flowing as their teeming fans all over the world are rooting and hoping for the team to reach the much latter stages or win the trophy. But how wide should such hope be? If antecedent is anything to go by, certain winning factors indicate which teams could go all the way to emerge as champions when the final is played on July 13 based on trends from more recent past tournaments.
The first, and the least likely, of such winning factors is good fortune and this doesn't mean luck, because such doesn't exist at the big stage of the World Cup. No team or country can possibly ride on to World Cup glory without being exceptional. That is not to say however that there is no room, though quite remote, for a handout that could help win a match or two at most (which could turn out a crucial one) like an off day for the opposing team or referee’s misjudgment in a team’s favor. England was at the receiving end of such misjudgments at the 1986 World Cup against Argentina and 2010 World Cup match against Germany with referees’ wrong decisions that allowed Diego Maradona’s goal helped in by his hand, and disallowed Frank Lampard’s goal that clearly crossed the line. On both occasions, England eventually lost and their teeming fans still feel the outcomes might have been different if they had not been that unfortunate. Time will tell which country will be so fortunate or unfortunate in Brazil?
Another factor that could count is home advantage and only one country, host Brazil, is enjoying and could utilize the home support as its 12th player to win crucial matches. Even countries with much less football pedigrees like Mexico, the United States of America and Japan and South Korea, when they hosted the world were a delightful bunch to watch with overwhelming support coming their way. The case of South Korea was quite exceptional as the Asian country went all the way to the semi-final and only lost to Germany, a team mature enough to put the 12th player where it belongs, on the stands. Being host however could turn into a disadvantage as it could put the home team, Brazil this time around, under intense pressure to do well, which might not ultimately augur well. If that happens and the home team loses particularly in the latter stages of the World Cup, like it happened in Italy in 1990, Germany in 2006 and Brazil itself far back in 1950, it will be really agonizing for millions of Brazilians.
It has become the tradition that the World Cup is usually won by a country within the continent that hosts it. The only exception was when Brazil won in Sweden in 1958 and when Asia and Africa, continents with less fancied teams to win the tournament hosted and it went to Brazil in 2002 and Spain in 2010. This factor of tradition thus favours South American giants Brazil and Argentina to lift this current World Cup and positions all other American countries in the competition to perform well, which actually has been the case for Costa Rica, the USA, Colombia and Chile in the first round of matches already played. European countries may not have it as rosy, according to tradition, as they had it the last time the World Cup was hosted in Europe, Germany 2006, when the four semifinalists were from the continent. Already, Spain, the defending champions and one of Europe’s pre-tournament contenders, have bowed to another tradition that has stood for over half a century which has not allowed a back-to-back triumph at the World Cup.
Individual artistry and brilliance could also be a factor as it was at the 1986 World Cup when Argentina’s Diego Maradona dazzled the world. Such talismanic players like Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, Argentina’s Lionel Messi, Uruguay’s Luiz Suarez, Brazil’s Neymar, and Holland’s Van Persie would be hoping to lead their country to glory or somewhere quite close. For Ronaldo and Messi, a World Cup success or exceptional display at least is critical in order to be truly reckoned among the all time greats like Pele, Maradona, Cryuff, Beckenbaeur, Romario and Zidane and co. Time will tell if they will be able to live up to such expectation, or if it would be a rather unsung player, in the mold of Paulo Rossi in 1982, Roger Milla in 1990 or Diego Forlan in 2010, that will take the tournament by storm.
To the factor of team spirit, cohesion and collective power which largely won two World Cup tournaments for Italy in 1982 and 2006 without a superstar in the class of Maradona, Ronaldo, Romario, Baggio or Zidane. The present German team appears to be strong on this, same as Brazil, based on the collective willpower demonstrated to win the Confederations Cup last year. And teams like the Netherlands and Belgium have the potential to really go all the way if they could add this factor to their play. A number of other teams from Europe and South America could also come with high team spirit and achieved a great tournament but pedigree will most likely fail them at the end.
Pedigree is a major factor in football. It is what two teams highly expected to cause a major upset at the 1994 World Cup, Colombia and Nigeria, did not have, and what Argentina had at the 1990 World Cup. While Colombia failed woefully losing out in the first round, and Nigeria got drowned by Italy’s pedigree in the 2nd round surrendering a 1-0 lead just a few minutes to full time, a lacklustre Argentine team in 1990 still struggled to the final only to be stopped from carting away the trophy by united Germany. In Brazil 2014, pedigree is on the side of past champions still in the competition, namely, Brazil, Germany, Argentina and France and either Italy or Uruguay. Three-time finalist, Holland, also stands a chance. Belgium and Portugal could try to achieve something bigger than their semi final placement in 1986 and 2006 respectively but other factors could count against them.
Perhaps, the greatest factor that has determined who wins the World Cup particularly in more recent tournaments is the valuable options of players the winning team possesses on the field and on the bench. Great examples are the French team that won the World Cup in 1998 and the Spanish team of 2010. Interestingly, Belgium appears to be leading the pack with the array of talents in their fold, but lack of that pedigree of a world champion may eventually stand in their way. Argentina and Germany have awesome talents in the midfield and attack, but their defence line is susceptible to flaws – Argentina more than Germany. Brazil can never be left out here, though this present team may be relying a bit too much on the creativity of Neymar. Will he be able to raise his game to Romario’s level at the 1994 World Cup and Ronaldo’s at 2002 that made Brazil overall victors? Only time will tell.
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